Since 1995 the United Nations have organised a regular series of global meetings with the title COP (Conference of the Parties). These meeting have been established to try and address some of the major existential environmental threats to the future of the planet. The conferences themselves are attended by political leaders from most of the counties around the world. The political leaders and the vested interest groups that meet at these conferences are presented with the latest scientific information from some of the leading scientists and scientific research organisations in all areas of environmental sustainability. The reports presented at the various COP meetings over the years make for very bleak reading. Some environmental organisations believe that the conferences have failed to address the fundamental existential threats that have been scientifically identified. One example is the attempt to try and limit the increase in global warming to 1.5%.
There are also many other academic and research centres that have been studying potential risks that are arising from areas of development from human gene editing to AI (Artificial Intelligence). This short analysis outlines a number of the more ‘minor’ possible scenarios that have the potential to become, or may already be, existential threats to our modern civilisation. We would hope that the scenarios outlined here never materialise into exponential threats but we cannot deny that they have some characteristics which could sow the seeds of disaster if not controlled in some way. Each of the scenarios has a probability indicator attached which reflects a purely subjective estimate on an arbitrary scale of 1 to 10.
There is also an alternative dystopian analysis which identifies the possible positive side-effects of some form of global catastrophe. This alternative analysis is based on the belief that the Earth’s carrying capacity for the human population has already been substantially exceeded. In one such dystopian scenario a ‘Plague-Virus’ or some other catastrophic event could potentially inflict a 90% wipeout of our First Global Scientific Civilisation (FGTSC). In this dark scenario there is a projected ‘silver lining’. Theoretically, such a human catastrophe could give the Earth’s natural ecosystems a period of relief from the relentless exploitation inflicted on it by the forces of modernity. It is to be hoped that the causes of such a collapse would help shape the evolution of the next stage of human civilisation. In a positive perspective it is also to be hoped that the moral and ethical lessons of such an enormous catastrophe would be carried forward to future generations: that the knowledge of the dangers of unrestrained exploitation of the natural world would ensure that foundations were laid to avoid such a calamity repeating itself.
Eight (Smallish) Existential Threats:
That May Come Your Way
1 Extinction by Plastic:
The Plasticisation of all Biological Life Forms and Ecosystems
2 Disintegration By:
The ‘Hive-Minding’ of Cultural Reality
3 Devastation By:
The Chickenisation of Global Ecosystems
4 Extermination By:
The Violence of the ‘Hairless Chested Gorilla’
5 Obliteration By:
The Antibioticisation of Sewerage
6 Destruction By:
The Nihilism of Secularised Materialism
7 Collapse By:
The Degendering of Homo sapiens
8 Breakdown By:
Complexity and the Third Generation Syndrome
| Extinction Index: | Probability Indicator |
| (The figures used in the Indicator range from 1 to 10. The higher the number, the more likely the statistical possibility of the event) | |
| Level of Known Unknowns | Range (1/10) |
| Level of Unknown Unknowns | Range (1/10) |
| Exponential Possibility | Range (1/10) |
1 Extinction by Plastic:
The Plasticisation of all Life and Ecosystems
What started as an almost invisible trickle at the beginning of the 20th century has now grown into a monstrous tsunami in the 21st.
Plastic and plastic chemicals have spread like a plague to every part of our planet, even into our bodies at levels know to be dangerous.
(Taken from submission by Dr Pete Myers to the third meeting of the UN’s Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution13–19 November 2023)
Plastic is a unique modern material with many positive benefits for a whole range of human activities. It is generally accepted that the world’s first fully synthetic plastic was Bakelite. This synthetic material was capable of being used in a wide range of industrial processes. The method of production that has evolved within the plastic industries makes plastic cheap, versatile, lightweight and suitable for a whole range of functions. Plastic products can play a critical role in food storage and safety. Plastic is used extensively in the health industries and in many other areas of human activity.
But no other artificially constructed material has become so ubiquitous as to be found in abundance in every life form and in every ecosystem. The destructive effects of the introduction of microplastics into the human body and into every natural ecosystem have not been fully understood as of today and may be greatly underestimated. A total ban on the production of plastic is almost inconceivable at this stage of its use. But there are ways of making the side effects of the plastic we use much less damaging to the global environment. Such measures will of course increase the cost of plastic and these measures are generally resisted by the plastics industry and the investors who make mega profits from this industry.
The Dark side of plastic
From an environmental perspective, plastic has become an ecological disaster. Plastic and the chemicals that are part of the manufacturing components used by the plastic industry are found in almost every niche of the Earth’s biological ecosystems. Because of their non-biological properties, these chemical components of plastic accumulate in the environment over time. There are various estimates of the amount of plastic that has already entered the earth’s ecosystems. These estimates are normally given in billions of metric tons of plastic. It is generally accepted that the cumulative amount is well over 10 billion and growing almost exponentially. The Great Pacific Garbage Patch (GPGP) in the centre of the Pacific Ocean is just one example, but a good one, of the effects and the dangers of the accumulation of plastic, as by its very nature it takes hundreds of years to decompose. It is estimated that billions of tons of plastic have already accumulated in the world’s oceans and landfills.
Plastic pollution can be seen almost everywhere in modern societies, both in our cities and in almost all rural and wilderness areas. While this type of plastic pollution is very unsightly and creates its own sets of problems, it is superficial compared with the dangers from the microplastics that are accumulating in almost all of the Earth’s ecosystems. Researchers have discovered microscopic plastic particles in the fats and lungs of two-thirds of the marine mammals in a study of ocean microplastics. There is also the unknow dangers of specific additives to modern plastic production. An additive like Bisphenol-A (BPA) has properties that are known to impact brain structures in humans and this is one of a number of dubious inputs to modern plastic production. There is some debate concerning the possible dangers of the use of BPA, particularly in food containers and water bottles. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) believes it is safe at very low levels; but there are many other chemical ingredients in modern plastic production that must be of serious concern for human and environmental health because of the extent of their use.
A study published in the journal of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America contained a startling headline. According to this study ‘A litre bottle of water can contain at least 245,000 bits of plastic’. This study, undertaken by researchers at the University of Columbia, used a new type of technology that could identify nanoparticles of plastic which are created when microplastics break down. A study in 2018 has shown that there could be at least 325 nanoparticles per litre bottle of water. But new analytical breakthroughs at the level of nanoparticles of the microplastics has shown this figure to be meaningless.
Extinction by Plastic:
The Plasticisation of all Life and Ecosystems
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (7/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (9/10)
Exponential Possibility (7/10)
2 Disintegration By:
The ‘Hive-Minding’ of Cultural Reality
We have so many ways of making you think
Resistance is futile
Many people see great dangers in the all-encompassing and manipulative power of social media technology in all its evolving manifestations. One analogy that has been put forward is that social media technology can be seen as the first stage in the evolution of a global ‘Hive Mind’ very like the example of the ‘Borg’ in the Star Trek Enterprise stories. The ‘Borg’ were conceived as one of the most powerful forces in the universe by their assimilation into their ‘Hive Mind’ of all the knowledge and information they came across. ‘Resistance is futile’ against the ‘Borg’ because of the power of assimilation and the exponential growth of the ‘Hive Mind’. The Star Trek series contained other stories which were written well before the power of social media had evolved. In one of these stories, individuals become totally addicted to a particular online computer game. This particular game had been designed with the power of full mind control and manipulation capabilities once any individual started playing.
Propaganda, rumour and misinformation have always been part of human social and cultural discourse. These forces have been manipulated by ruling elites to support their own positions of dominance within any given social system. But the same forces and influences can also be used by individuals and groups outside of the elites to challenge and undermine the power of elites. Historical experience has shown how propaganda and misinformation can be used very effectively to create scapegoat groups and paranoid beliefs. Some social scientists have used a new concept called a ‘meme’, which has the characteristics of a self-replicating part of cultural evolution. There are numerous historical examples of these cultural ‘memes’ created by manipulated half-truths taking on life of their own. The influence of these beliefs become more powerful in times of war and social instability.
Every individual sees and experiences the world differently from every other individual. This is one of the miracles of our human conscious awareness. But it is also one of the characteristics that can contribute to the manipulation of our perceptions and our myths and delusions about reality. Even at an individual level, with our closest friends, we will have divergent opinions and perceptual feelings about what we experience. Every individual’s understanding of reality will change over time and each individual will evolve their perceptions at different levels. This is a natural and positive part of how we mature. Within these changes, our brains offer us a highly edited, subjective and partial interpretation of reality. Even the most sophisticated individual, and particularly the individuals who believe in their own sophistication, is subject to the forces of misunderstanding and subjective analysis.
The perceptions of our cultural reality is how we as individuals see, explain and try to understand the world around us. These perceptions are naturally open to influences from a wide range of sources. Some of these influences are open and transparent but there are many forces that seek to influence each individual which are the very opposite of open or transparent. In fact, many of these forces set out to deliberately mislead and confuse individuals and groups. This manipulation is carried out by the promotion of half-truths that are knowingly based on false, fallacious and incorrect information. The latest research would seem to suggest that the creation and distribution of deliberately false narratives can take on a life of their own similar to the distribution and spread of biological pathogens. These pathogens found in the natural world can become dangerous when they mutate and become capable of spreading into many different environments.
The Twitterfication of cultural reality (TwitterAnon)
The power of social media in all its various formats has developed enormous potential from both a positive and negative perspective. Some researchers have identified the concept of ‘social media pathogens’ that have the ability to infect social discourse in a similar fashion to pathogens found in the natural world. They are capable of spreading in a similar pattern and are capable of infecting both individuals and groups. Some researchers have identified QAnon as the world’s first digital pandemic. These researchers have shown how the digital pathogen spreads and more importantly they have been able to identify some of the real world consequences. Some of these consequences have had devasting effects on political and social discourse. Every society will have its fair share of unfairness and grievances that need to be challenged by those who are active in that society. But many of the conspiracy theories associated with social media are so bizarre and fantastic that they are used to prevent the dialogue that can actually lead to change in the distribution of power and privilege.
In this context, the TwitterAnon culture that has infested all forms of modern discourse should be seen as a direct existential threat to the cultures and civilisations which have been infected by it. Developments in social media have created a whole new world of paranoid delusions masquerading as secret information that elites are hiding from the non-elites. These social media platforms have developed enormously powerful tools based on algorithms and other programmes that are designed to manipulate prejudices and exclude any form of balance or dissent. These programmes have become so sophisticated that most of the individuals who are being manipulated are certain that they are not being manipulated. Conspiracy theories about the abuse of power by ruling elites is not new and some of the historical conspiracy theories have contributed to a better understanding of how power and manipulation works. The existential threat arises from the enormous power of the various social media platforms to manipulate and indoctrinate so many individuals. The power of this indoctrination of individuals seems to have no limits and will only increase over time and with even more powerful tools of manipulation. No antidote to these pathogens has yet been developed.
Disintegration by: the ‘Hive-Minding’ of Cultural Reality
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (5/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (7/10)
Exponential Possibility (5/10)
3 Devastation By:
The Chickenisation of Global Ecosystems
This we know: the earth does not belong to man, man belongs to the earth.
Chief Seattle (1854)
The production, consumption and disposal of gigantic numbers of chickens in the modern industrial food production system poses unique and unpredicted challenges to human health and environmental welfare. The actual numbers of chickens produced and consumed in our modern industrial food system has increased at an unprecedented level. The increase in the numbers is on a truly gargantuan scale. The statistics cannot be that precise but it is generally agreed that at least 60 billion chickens are produced and slaughtered every year and the real figure could be as high as 90 billion. These figures just keep growing. The sheer scale of the production, the methods of production and the types of inputs used should be identified as a clear and present danger to human health and environmental well-being. These dangers should be identified as posing an existential threat to human health and to environmental integrity both in the gradual and the less gradual timeframe.
The chemical and biological effects of consuming and disposing of 60 to 90 billion chickens annually are totally unknown. The following possibilities can be reasonably proposed. In relation to the environmental conditions, the chemicals and the other inputs that are required to produce 60 to 90 billion chickens do create a direct existential threat to the global ecosystems and to Homo sapiens as individuals. The 60 to 90 billion chickens being consumed by Homo sapiens are being fed and injected with a cocktail of chemicals, antibiotics and growth hormones.
Some individuals are eating chicken meat two to three times a day over long periods of time and almost every day of their lives. Nobody really knows the long-term effect on individuals of this level of consumption. The cocktail of chemicals that are used in the modern industrial production of chicken meat must have some effect on individual health. We are still in the first generation of individuals who are consuming extraordinary amounts of industrialised chicken meat. The real negative effects of this consumption may take some time to manifest themselves in the real world. There have already been a number of outbreaks of Avian Influenza viruses. Such outbreaks may be only the tip of the proverbial iceberg, which means that 90% of the potential dangers are well hidden until after the event.
Outlook
At some stage in the future these avian viruses could develop a critical immunity and the ability to spread like a modern plague. It is conceivable that such a virus could inflict existential damage on part or all of the global ecosystem or on Homo sapiens. There is also a high risk of antibiotic-resistant bacterial infection associated with the production of most of the modern chicken meat industry. Antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria have been identified as a major problem with unknown consequences for human health. Some medical experts have also warned about the possible dangerous impact of human gut flora.
One of the more recent developments in industrial chicken meat production is the use of arsenic. Arsenic is increasingly being made a part of chicken feed to ward off diarrhoea and improve the pigmentation of the meat. The long-term effects of this exposure to arsenic on human health is unknown, but we can be sure that it is not beneficial.
In areas of the food system there are guidelines from the health authorities about the danger of over-consumption of any one particular food source. For example, it is now recommended that eating of portions of industrially farmed salmon should be limited to one portion every seven to fourteen days. It is well past the time foe similar guidelines be issued for industrially produced chicken meat regardless of the powerful lobbies that would be against such advice.
This analysis does not even consider the suffering inflicted on the individual chickens in the industrialised and chemicalised process. We know that chickens are sentient beings in their own right with feelings and basic requirements for their welfare. A modern industrialised food production system that does not even consider the amount of suffering it inflicts on animals does not reflect well on any of the other aspects of the system.
Devastation by: the Chickenisation of Global Ecosystems
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (7/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (8/10)
Exponential Possibility (6/10)
4 Extermination By:
The Violence of the ‘Hairless Chested Gorilla’
Peace is not the absence of conflict.
It is the ability and predisposition to cope with conflict by peaceful means.
It is vital to understand that ‘Human Violence’ in its many manifestations has characteristics that are unique in relation to the violence that is found in the natural world. The ‘hairless chested gorilla’ lives in a world of almost complete denial of and detachment from the connection between their decisions and their actions and the consequences of their decisions and actions. The ‘hairless chested gorilla’ has the unique ability of convincing themselves that black is white and, in that context, human logic and reason can be corrupted to support or justify any action. In numerous ways many members of ‘Homo Hairless’ would seem to spend their time planning to make the Earth totally uninhabitable. One of the most implausible things about the phenomenon of the ‘hairless chested gorilla’ is that the narratives of violence of Homo Hairless have been accepted and normalised by a significant proportion of scientists, politicians, academics and, in many cases, philosophers and theologians.
Many of the scientists, politicians and military personal who created the first atomic bomb were aware of the life-threatening dangers that could arise from the spread and development of nuclear weapons. These scientists went ahead regardless of the very real dangers that weaponising the splitting of the atom would bring about. Many of the individuals who contributed to these developments tried to justify their roles with many different explanations and excuses. As the early nuclear weapons were developed into thermonuclear weapons the justifications and excuses also evolved. At one stage in the process of the weaponisation of splitting the atom it was considered theoretically possible that the reaction itself might become uncontrolled and could start to burn up the atmosphere with unpredictable consequences. But this extreme danger was downplayed by the scientists so as not to hinder their work.
Some of the individuals involved both in the early developments and in the later massive proliferation of nuclear weapon systems were more aware of the dangers than others. Individuals who had some knowledge of the rise and fall of human civilisation over the millenniums were aware that many civilisations collapse through self-inflicted choices. In relation to the development of nuclear weapons one question stood out in this context. How long will a civilisation survive from the time it first explodes a nuclear weapon? Some people believed that such a civilisation would be very lucky to survive more than one hundred years. A second school of thought believed that a global nuclear war could come about within a much shorter period of time. This second school of thought based their assumptions on the historical evidence of how new weapon systems generally develop and spread. As it turned out their predictions were more accurate than they would like to have believed.
Within twenty years of the first nuclear explosion the world was plunged into a nuclear crisis that threatened to inflict not only unprecedented destruction on human existence but also to imperil the very survival of the global biosphere. The Cuban Missile Crisis occurred at (X + 16) where ‘X’ is the first nuclear detonation and ‘16’ is the number of years elapsed. It would be hard to underestimate the risks involved in the Cuban Missile Crisis and the pure ‘luck’ involved in the fact that the worst-case scenario did not happen. We are now heading towards (X + 80), and the risks and the exponential dangers from a global thermonuclear confrontation are higher than ever. Every effort that has been made to try and reduce or restrict the evolution of these ecocidal weapon systems has failed.
We must always live in hope but from a statistical perspective even hope must have its limitations. It is purely a utopian belief to hope that these global ecocidal weapon systems will exist but will not be used. It can be argued from a rational point of view that nobody would deliberately set out to destroy the planet. But from a rational perspective these weapons of extermination should not have been developed in the first place. From the perspective of rationality there is little comfort. At the same time the existential dangers are probably higher from some inadvertent or accidental series of consequences. Either way once the rubble has been bounced it has been bounced.
Extermination by: the Violence of the ‘Hairless Chested Gorilla’
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (8/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (7/10)
Exponential Possibility (9/10)
5 Obliteration By:
The Antibioticisation of Sewerage
The World Health Organization (WHO) has identified twelve superbugs that have the potential to evolve into existential threats from ‘priority pathogens’ to ‘nightmare bacteria’.
Our First Global Techno-Scientific Civilisation (FGTSC) has managed to create numerous ‘forever chemicals’ which will have unknow and unforeseen long-term consequences. Chemicals identified as PFAS* (of which there are thousands) are known to be long lasting and widespread. They are now found in the blood of individuals and animals all over the world. They are also found in water and soil in all areas of the globe. The long-term consequences of these chemical cocktails in our environment are unknown but we can be almost certain that there will be some very negative side effects. The existential dangers from the chemicalisation and the antibioticisation of all areas of the earth’s ecosystems have been greatly underestimated. The reality of this existential threat would be hard to believe if written as part of the plot of a B movie disaster film. The extinction by the chemicalisation and antibioticisation of our sewerage scenario can be outlined in the following short analysis.
The total quantity of antibiotics and the cocktail of related biochemical products entering our water-based sewerage systems has reached a critical mass. This critical mass will create an environment in which dangerous pathogens will evolve and flourish. These bacteria carry the possibility of a dangerous mutation which they share with the existing wild bacteria found in all natural systems. These potentially super-deadly bacteria and microorganisms have the potential to spread into all our natural ecosystems and into all plants and animals within these systems. A delayed time span for the incubation period of super-dangerous bacteria means that when the first symptoms are noticed it may well be already too late. The new strains of these super-deadly bacteria may be completely drug resistant. This drug resistance has been created by the totally irresponsible overuse of antibiotics and antimicrobials. So, that the stage is set for an existential event of unprecedented levels of human extinction.
At the same time, there has been an enormous increase in the use of antibiotics in modern food production systems and in routine and massive inappropriate use in human and animal health systems. One of the greatest dangers is related to diseases that can be transmitted between animals and humans. The antibiotics that deal with these dangers are becoming less and less effective. Some scientists have talked about the concept of an ‘Antibiotic Winter’. In many developing countries antibiotics are distributed without the need for prescription or any other restriction. In some countries children can have an average of between three and five courses of antibiotics within the first two years of life. This level of usage of antibiotics increases the risk of a whole range of diseases that become resistant to the very antibiotics that caused them.
A 2022 paper for the journal of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry reinforces these points: ‘Overall, the results show that API [active pharmaceutical ingredients] pollution is a global problem that is likely negatively affecting the health of the world’s rivers. To meet the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, work is urgently needed to tackle the problem and bring concentrations down to an acceptable level.’
Microbiota Vault
There have been a number of proposals put forward to try and address the problem of the chemical and antibiotic saturation of numerous regional and global ecosystems. One of the most creative and dynamic is the proposal to establish a global ‘Microbiota Vault’. This idea has been developed so that it could be used to set up a ‘Microbiota Vault’ similar in principle to the ‘Seed Vault’ in Norway. This microbiological vault would be a holding centre for the microbes that are being killed off by chemicalisation and the overuse of antibiotics. It could be used to protect against the loss of the biodiversity of microbes and the impairment of the naturally evolved diversity. There is a real and present danger of human extinction by the forever chemicals developing the characteristics of an antimicrobial superbug.
At the same time, the health of each individual is vulnerable to the overuse of antibiotics. The use of antibiotics in all areas of the food production system has increased enormously in recent times. Some researchers have elaborated the theory of ‘the missing microbes’: The body of each person evolves its own bacterial ecosystem. These ‘normal’ bacteria fortify the body of each individual and produce very effective natural protection from infections and other dangers. Antibiotic drugs damage this natural protection by among other things decreasing the range of microbes in the individual’s body. The theory of the missing microbes identifies the dangers of the overuse of antibiotics as a potentially significant threat to human health in the medium to long term.
Obliteration By: The Antibioticisation of Sewerage
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (5/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (7/10)
Exponential Possibility (7/10)
*(PFAS’s are synthetic chemicals identified as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances)
6 Destruction By: The Nihilism of Secularised Materialism
Never in the history of human existence has so much been consumed,
and so much waste produced, by so few, in such a short period of time.
Over the course of human history civilisations in all their complexity have come and gone. Some civilisations have experienced long periods in which their narratives and worldviews are taken for granted as self-evidently superior to any other system. Even within these stable civilisations there are stresses and strains mostly in relation to the distribution of power and privilege within the existing cultural framework. But nothing stays the same over time and each new generation has the potential to accept or reject the given norms and principles. The most successful historical civilisations generally have a strong ideological set of beliefs such as a belief in their own superiority. These beliefs create a narrative of self-confidence and superiority that reinforces the original military or cultural superiority. Such a narrative is reinforced when it revolves around a strong set of religious beliefs. These religious beliefs will strengthen the moral and ethical foundations of any particular civilisation. Very few empires or civilisations have survived for very long without evolving or adopting moral and ethical principles. These principles have historically evolved within a religious narrative.
There are a number of critical factors that seem to be the foundation on which civilisations and empires arise and develop. Military and economic dynamics can be identified in the establishment of most empires. But military and economic prowess alone can only go so far in holding any particular empire together over time. Other equally important factors come into play with the ravages of time. For any military empire to survive from one generation to the next there has to be a set of ideological beliefs that hold that organisation together. Such a set of beliefs can be made up from a number of independent variables. The power and energy associated with ‘religious belief’ is probably one of the most dynamic forces in the creation of social cohesion. The same force can of course have the opposite effect and under certain circumstances the power of ‘religious belief’ can act to tear a society apart. The power of belief concept is a very nebulous concept because it can manifest itself across the whole range of human experience and social institutions.
The most successful characteristic associated with the power of belief is the power that encompasses a religious set of beliefs. But these beliefs like any other set of beliefs are open to continuous challenge. There have always been dynamic forces of change from one generation to the next. These forces of change can be both destructive and constructive. These trends would seem to be part of the natural evolution of human culture. But at times the forces of change can become far more destructive than constructive. It would seem that our age of secularised materialism is one of these times. The main dynamic forces of modernity are unravelling our human cultures away from ‘nature’ and from ‘spirit’. This unravelling will come at a very high price for future generations. Because the trends of these changes are moving towards a form of cultural suicide.
Modern capitalist consumer societies have created a whole new set of moralities, ethics and values within which have evolved new cultural and social perceptions of reality. The drive to create and stimulate endless consumption has and is inflicting enormous damage on the Earth’s ecosystems. But environmental damage and destruction is only one side effect of modern Secularised Capitalist Consumer Societies (SCCS). The new secular narratives associated with endless consumption have evolved their own unique brand of accepted normalities. The concept of ‘bread and circuses’ have been taken to a whole new level of artificiality.
Reverence for life
Human social systems and cultures are shaped by many nebulous forces that are not that easy to identify. The challenges of idealism, romanticism and imagination which require individual courage and daring have been almost completely replaced by materialism and purely economic calculation. As one example, in the more secularised societies almost every university must justify itself and its courses in terms of material awards and economic cost-benefit analysis. The sound and fury of political correctness signifies the bogus nature of the arguments no matter how sophisticated the debate may sound. The evolution of reverence for all life forms is probably one of the foundational conceptual ideas of advanced societies. Reverence for life starts with reverence for yourself as an individual and expands to include the awareness of all life forms. A culture that has lost or not evolved the concept of reverence will always remain a primitive culture. In this sense a primitive culture can have spears or intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Destruction by: the Nihilism of Secularised Materialism
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (5/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (5/10)
Exponential Possibility (5/10)
7 Collapse By:
The Degendering of Homo sapiens
From a biological perspective, gender is determined by two factors: chromosomes and hormones. In humans, males have one X and one Y chromosome (XY) while females have two X chromosomes (XX)
Our first Global Techno-Scientific Civilisation (FGTSC) has evolved around the unprecedented discoveries and inventions in applied science and technology. These discoveries and inventions have laid the foundation for the creation of a whole range of innovative artificial and synthetic substances. These substances have been enormously beneficial in terms of individual human welfare from agricultural food production to all areas of individual medical health. But many of these developments are based on chemical and synthetic substances that are not found in nature. There may well be a significant price to pay in relation to the long-term accumulation of these substances in the natural world and more significantly in human genetic structure. No scientific model can predict the results of the complex and dynamic relationships of so many different artificial inputs over time. According to a 2019 OECD report on pharmaceutical residues in freshwater: ‘Laboratory and field tests show traces of oral contraceptives causing the feminisation of fish and amphibians, and residues of psychiatric drugs altering fish behaviour.’
These chemicals and the whole range of artificial and synthetic substances introduced by our Global Scientific Civilisation may be inflicting irreparably genetic damage to the natural gender balance and health of Homo sapiens. This danger is intensified by the compound effects of the interaction of so many different artificial and chemical inputs. The danger and the damage associated with this trend have been building up over a number of generations but may well now be moving towards a critical stage. We now know that in the more advanced countries the male sperm count is locked in a downward spiral. There are a number of other biological indicators that are showing similar negative trends. At the same time, and from a sociological perspective, female fecundity in modern societies is continuing to drop well below the replacement level.
Related examples
We know that in some species like the green turtle environmental factors have led to a collapse of the gender balance in that species. The green turtle species is now heading for a total imbalance in gender distribution which will threaten the very survival of the species. Studies have shown that at least 93% of the species will be either female or non-gender. This trend will almost certainly lead to the extinction of the Green Turtle species. In the same way, the gender balance of Homo sapiens could be directly affected by the chemical composition of the goods we use in everyday life combined with the level of pharmaceuticals in our food. Developments in in vitro fertilisation and related medical advances could ensure the survival of the species even with such a gender imbalance.
The debate from this perspective is not directly related to the various standpoints and ideological debates on the significance of socially constructed gender roles within different cultures. The degendering of Homo sapiens may have some very positive consequences. A 93% female human species may be the best way to reduce and possibly eliminate all forms of violence particularly the institution of war. But there are enormous unforeseen risks involved in the accidental or deliberate experiments in the attempts to manipulate human genetic structures. At the same time the quantity and the variety of artificial chemical and pharmaceutical inputs into the balance of the natural world must pose real and present unprecedented risks. The immense and extraordinary levels of technological destructiveness in relation to the balances in a number of natural ecosystems poses an existential threat to Homo sapiens.
Collapse by: Degendering of Homo sapiens
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (5/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (7/10)
Exponential Possibility (5/10)
8 Breakdown By:
Complexity and the Third Generation Syndrome
Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations.
Who doesn’t have it, does it, and who has it, misuses it.
The concepts surrounding these traditional proverbs are to be found in most cultural traditions. The traditional usage was applied to families, but it is important to recognise that similar forces are also working in the social and cultural environments. In this context, complexity and its twin, stultification, are two of the most insidious threats to the survival of any successful and dynamic human social-cultural organisation. Any social-cultural system that is successful over time will by necessity have to evolve some form of ‘administration structures’ and some form of ‘bureaucratic framework’. These ‘administration structures’ and the ‘bureaucratic framework’ can be seen as evils, but no social-cultural system will survive without them. At the same time, these institutions have the potential, over time, to drag down the very system that they serve. A successful social-cultural system can justify its existence by its own success and survival. But success and survival today are no guarantee that success and survival will continue into the future. Time, as it moves inevitably forward, in the human world should be seen as being as fundamental as the force of gravity in the physical world. We should be able to recognize a ‘Law of Time’ in relation to human institutions as time is a fundamental force of change. Within this ‘Law of Time’ it could be stated that complexity and stultification creep into any successful system by the very nature of the length of time of its successful survival.
In the natural world a complex system will have many of the robust characteristics that are necessary for survival over time. The social and cultural systems evolved by humans do not have these characteristics. In human social and cultural systems, the more complex the system becomes the more fragile it becomes. The complexity of social-cultural systems by its very nature will deaden the dynamic creativity of that system. The more complex a system becomes, the less dynamically creative will be it possibilities. At the same time, the original narrative that inspired the growth of the system in the first place will become flat and much less attractive to the following generations.
The ‘Third Generation’ syndrome will with time and stability come to dominate the mindset of the elites. This dominant mindset, with its inherent tendency towards self-justification, will tend to dictate the evolution of the narratives of any social-cultural system. Wealth and all the privileges that come with dominance and affluence have a strong tendency to create an environment of generational egoism. The characteristics of generational egoism will have a propensity to critically undermine the very system that produced such wealth and privilege in the first place. A privileged elite generation will lose the power of belief that is so critical to the maintenance of vitality of the system. The lack of challenge will create stultification that is a sure recipe for disintegration and collapse.
The Roman Catholic Church, which can trace its origin back almost two thousand years, is a classic example of an exemption to this rule of complexity and stultification. The Catholic Church contains one of the most important antidotes to stultification: that antidote can be found in the individual ‘Power of Belief’. The ‘Power of Belief’ is one of the most underestimated powers in human social-cultural history. The ‘Power of Belief’ energises the creativity of the individual and infuses the social-cultural organistion with enormous energy. Within the institution of the Catholic Church, each new generation has the opportunity to challenge itself to reinterpret the principles and fundamentals of the belief without fully destroying the existing administration and bureaucracy. The power of religious belief in general and not just in the Christian world would seem to be able to overcome the challenges of the ‘Third Generation’ syndrome.
Breakdown By: Complexity and the Third Generation Syndrome
Probability Indicator
Level of Known Unknowns (5/10)
Level of Unknown Unknowns (7/10)
Exponential Possibility (7/10)
Conclusion
We know that in many historical periods infectious diseases, known as ‘pestilence’ and ‘plague’, have inflicted more untimely deaths and suffering than any other cause, including violence and famine. The imagery associated with the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, War, Famine, Pestilence and untimely Death, has been a constant feature in human history. The Black Death is reputed to have decimated one third of the population of Europe and an immeasurable number of people outside of Europe. The Spanish flu that raged across the world in the aftermath of the First World War was far more deadly than the appalling levels of the violence of the war itself. We also know that bacteria have a tendency to mutate and to become resistance to antibiotics. We don’t know yet just how deadly these bacterial mutations will be. The optimistic scenario is that science with all its creativity will be able to keep one step ahead of these deadly mutations.
The Covid 19 pandemic could be seen as a global-level wakeup call to one of the dangers that is specifically associated with our modern lifestyles. The actual number and the rapidity of the movement of people around the globe must create its own unique risks and dangers. The deaths and devastation resulting from Covid 19 were dreadful for those who suffered from them. But on a historical and global level Covid 19 must be seen as a very minor outbreak of a potentially devastating disease. The jury is still out in relation to how effect the actions of the World Health Organization (WHO) and various governments were in preventing an even more devasting occurrence. The optimists believe that the actions taken by the authorities and the effectiveness of the vaccines were a major factor in limiting the devastation that could have been far greater than actually occurred. The optimists say that of course there are still lessons to be learnt at almost every level of response. The pessimists believe the exact opposite. They believe that the Covid pandemic could have been and should have been managed at a very early stage. But that politics within the WHO and in national governments prevented the swift action that would have contained Covid 19 to a very restricted area. There are also many conspiracy theories around the role of the military and the Gain-of-function biological research in relation to the outbreak of the disease. There are also many conspiracy theories around the role of the global pharmaceutical industries.
From an optimistic perspective there are many positive developments in relation to the awareness and amelioration of many of the ‘small existential threats’ that can be identified and that we are aware of. It is possible to be optimistic that these ‘small existential threats’ will remain small in the sense that they will not develop into global existential dangers. We know that the possible existential threat that was identified as the Hole in the Ozone Layer was recognised and action at a global level was taken to address this danger. The treaty that was adopted as the Montreal Protocol in 1987 showed that it is possible to take action on the foot of overwhelming scientific knowledge. It is easy to be critical of the slow pace of action associated with the COP (Conference of the Parties) meetings, but these meetings can also be seen as unprecedented. These meetings bring together at a truly global level politicians, scientists, environmentalists and industrial and financial interests. Each sectional interest will go with their own specific agenda, but the very existence of COPs recognises the existential dangers of the damage that is being inflicted on the Earth’s ecosystems. The Paris Agreement (2015) that was established by the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) is recognised as a legally binding treaty which it is hoped will make long-term positive contributions to reducing the harm that we are inflicting on the natural environment. In its perspective, it is as universal as the Millennium Development Goals as established by the United Nations. These goals are far from having been achieved but the very fact that they have been identified and adopted by the world community of nations is a major step in the right direction.
